From Jim Eskin, Public Affairs Stratagist ....................... ...............October 2008

The Electoral College meets the Twilight Zone. What if November 4th culminates in a 269 to 269 tie?

As directed by the 12th Amendment, the 435 - many of them brand new - members of the House of Representatives would find the selection of the next president as their first official responsibility.

Unlike the Electoral College system, where larger population equals more votes, each state in the House gets exactly one vote. The first candidate to win the votes of any 26 states is the new president. The 12th Amendment gives the House until January 20th to select a president. Should the House fail to meet the deadline, the selected vice president assumes power.

It is up to the group, or "delegation" of representatives from each state to decide among themselves how their state will cast its one and only vote. Suddenly, smaller states like Wyoming, Montana and Vermont, with only one representative wield as much power as California or New York. A tie in a state caucus results in no vote.

As the House selects the new president, the Senate is busy selecting the new vice-president. Each of the 100 Senators gets one vote, with a simple majority - 51 - Senators required to select the vice-president. Unlike it does on the House, the 12th Amendment places no time limit on the Senate's selection of a vice president. Guess what? We could have a president and vice president from different political parties.

For history buffs, only two elections, 1800 and 1824, have been decided in the House.

Is a 269-269 tie probable? No. But in this very tight election, it's a possibility.

The Great Debates
Presidential debates are a modern television age creation. The nominees of the two major parties didn't debate until 1960, when Kennedy faced Nixon. Although the 1960 debates were popular with the public and broadcast nationally on network television, presidential debates took a hiatus until 1976. Their absence is due, for the most part, to incumbents refusing to debate and federal communications laws which required equal time for all presidential candidates, even minor ones.

Since 1976, debates have played an important role in presidential campaigns. There is a lot of speculation about the 2008 debates being a tipping point. But in the last few decades, debates have rarely changed the momentum of a campaign, instead they have helped candidates exploit an opponent's weakness, deflect attacks, and provide a national audience some new ideas.

Decline in Swing Voters
The USA Today/Gallup poll indicates the percentage of voters who are "up for grabs" has declined sharply recently from 30% to 21%.

Historically, the proportion of swing voters tends to decline as Election Day approaches.

Gallup's research on swing voters has shown that, not surprisingly, political independents and moderates are usually among the most likely voters to lack a firm commitment to a candidate in a presidential election. In the poll, 34% of independents and 33% of moderates can be considered swing voters, both of which are well above the national average of 21%.

Beyond those groups, the types of voters more likely to be swing voters have varied across elections. This year, older voters tend to be more movable, as 28% of those 65 and older are not committed to a candidate at this point, compared with 16% of 18- to 29-year-olds, 20% of 30- to 49-year-olds, and 19% of those aged 50 to 64.

Football Buddy
People would rather watch a football game with Barack Obama than with John McCain - but by barely the length of a football.

Obama was the pick over McCain by a narrow 50% to 47%, in an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll that generally mirrors each presidential candidate's strengths and weaknesses with voters. Women, minorities, younger and unmarried people were likelier to prefer catching a game with Obama while men, whites, older and married people would rather watch with McCain.

The Youth Vote
The Harvard's Institute of Politics has been analyzing 18- to 24-year-old voters since 2000. Their latest survey indicates that Obama maintains a solid 23-point lead among likely young voters over McCain, 55% to 32% - with 13% undecided. There are approximately 25.5 million 18- to 24-year-old citizens.

For perspective, exit poll results showed John Kerry won the total youth vote (18- to 29-year-olds) in 2004, by a 9-point margin, 54%-45%.

Religion and Politics
Some Americans are having a change of heart about mixing religion and politics. A Pew Research Center survey finds a narrow majority of the public saying that churches and other houses of worship should keep out of political matters and not express their views on day-to-day social and political matters. For a decade, majorities of Americans had voiced support for religious institutions speaking out on such issues.

The survey reveals that most of the reconsideration of the desirability of religious involvement in politics has occurred among conservatives. Four years ago, just 30% of conservatives believed that churches and other houses of worship should stay out of politics. Today, 50% of conservatives express this view.

No Laugher
In a Minnesota Public Radio News poll, funny man Democrat Al Franken has caught up to Republican incumbent Republican Norm Coleman in the race for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat. Norm Coleman had built a healthy lead in numerous polls as Franken faced a series of setbacks.

Let's see who has the last laugh.

More Lobbyists
Despite heavy anti-lobbyist sentiment espoused by presidential candidates and the probability of an increasingly Democratic Congress, K Street expects business to spike in the years ahead as corporate interests recruit more lobbyists for protection.

Health care is likely to emerge as an early area of concentration, especially if Obama wins. Also expected to give lobbying a jolt is a tide of legislation that will surge from a new presidency to end the long-running stalemate on Capitol Hill on various topics, such as climate change, taxation and the costs of energy.

Overlooked Minority
People with disabilities represent the largest minority. Yet, in a survey by Disaboom, the premier online community for people with disabilities, 91% of people with disabilities believe they receive less attention than other minority groups from the presidential candidates.

Respondents identified healthcare, unemployment and community support as the key issues they'd like to see addressed by the candidates.

Disaboom's also finds that 57% of people with disabilities support Obama and 37% support McCain in the 2008 presidential election.

Book Review
Want to read a friendly version of Sarah Palin's life, buy Sarah by Kaylene Johnson.

The 137-page - 32 of which are pictures - large-fonted storybook re-telling of Palin's life depicts that positive image much of America heard in her vice presidential nominee acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention - and repeated on the stump.

If it's a fair, investigative piece you're looking for, this isn't it. But what the book, written by someone who doesn't claim to be a journalist, does do is fill in some of the detail of Palin's early life and paints a picture of a tenacious, headstrong, even stubborn person, who has an uncanny ability to connect with voters and is ultimately guided by a moral compass of right and wrong.

Battle for Congress Tightens
A potential shift in fortunes for the Republicans in Congress is seen in the USA Today/Gallup survey, with the Democrats now leading the Republicans by just three percentage points, 48% to 45%, in voters' "generic ballot" preferences for Congress. This is down from consistent double-digit Democratic leads seen on this measure over the past year.

As is true for the current structure of voting preferences for president, Democratic voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Democratic candidate in their congressional districts (92%), Republican voters are nearly uniform in their support for the Republican candidate (94%), and independents are closely split, with 44% backing the Democrat and 40% the Republican.

Celebrity Generosity Quiz
The Giving Back Fund, an organization that seeks to encourage philanthropy, has compiled a list of the most generous celebrities. Match the following celebrities with their charitable giving in 2007. Answers presented below. See you next month.

Answers: 1=b, 2=a, 3=c, 4=d, 5=e.

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