From Jim Eskin, Public Affairs Stratagist ....................... ................ August 2008

John McCain and Barack Obama are now wrestling with the weighty decision on a running mate as they inherit a process that the late political historian Theodore White described as "absurd."

The basic methodology can be boiled down to one simple truth: It's wholly dependent on the wishes and whims of the presidential candidate.

Sure, the presidential nominee must be the central decision-maker, but can't the process provide broader input, and more checks and balances? Here are a few ideas to prompt discussion:

* Place the vice president's race on the primary ballot. In the spirit of democracy, let the people decide who should be their party's nominee.

* Establish the tradition that the vice presidential nominee be chosen from candidates who actively campaigned for president during the primaries.

* Have the presidential and vice presidential candidates run as a ticket for their party's nomination.

* Let delegates choose freely on the convention floor (Adlai Stevenson did exactly that at the 1956 Democratic convention).

* Empower the respective national party committees to make the decision.

* Open up the screening process to public view. While some confidentiality is necessary, there could be a greater degree of public disclosure.

The current method of selecting the person a heartbeat away from the most important job in the world appears far too arbitrary and capricious. There must be a better way.

ENDING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
If you can't stand the Electoral College, you should like the National Popular Vote bill. This guarantees the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and the District of Columbia).

The bill is gaining momentum. It has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey and Maryland. It has passed 18 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Rhode Island and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland and Vermont.

The bill is currently endorsed by 1,005 state legislators-440 sponsors (in 47 states) and an additional 565 legislators who have cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

The National Popular Vote bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes-that is, enough electoral votes to elect a president (270 of 538).

FIGHT FOR FORTY-SOMETHINGS
Barack Obama's appeal to younger voters and John McCain's support among older voters may have created a situation where the outcome will turn on the preferences of middle-aged voters-particularly those in their 40s.

And the Gallup Poll finds McCain and Obama virtually tied in support among registered voters between the ages of 40 and 49.

Forty-something voters are a politically interesting group because some of the common political divides in the electorate aren't evident within this particular age group. For example, there's almost no gender gap in voting preferences among those in their 40s.

The Obama and McCain campaigns will do all they can turn out their solid supporters-which will include younger voters for Obama and older voters for McCain. But their efforts at persuading voters may be most fruitful if targeted at middle-aged voters, particularly those in their 40s.

RACE VS. AGE
Twenty-three percent of Americans say McCain's age would make him a less effective President were he to win in November, while only 8% say Obama's race would make him less effective.

As far the public is concerned, Obama's race appears to be a wash in terms of perceptions about his ability to serve effectively as president.

But 23% say McCain would be less effective as a result of his age, while 11% say he would be more effective. The net result is a slightly negative view of the impact of McCain's advanced age.

FOUR-LEGGED POLL
Here's one poll comforting to the presumptive Republican nominee: AP-Yahoo! News finds that pet owners favor McCain over Obama 42% to 37%.

This is a huge demographic. The American Pet Product Manufacturers Association estimates that 63% of American homes include a pet, including 88 million cats and 75 million dogs.

Both of those groups lean toward McCain: 43% to 34% for dog owners and 41% to 38% for cat owners.

McCain has a veritable menagerie of pets, including Sam, the English springer spaniel; Coco, the mutt; turtles Cuff and Link; Oreo, the black and white cat; a ferret; three parakeets; and a bunch of saltwater fish.

While he doesn't currently have a pet, Obama has promised his daughters a dog once the campaign is over.

BARBECUE POLL
People would rather barbecue burgers with Barack than with John.

By 52% to 45%, they would prefer having Obama over McCain to their summer cookout, according to an AP-Yahoo! News poll.

This is despite the fact that the Arizona Senator is supposed to be pretty talented over the grill.

FIGHT FOR CONGRESS
Democrats continue to lead Republicans by double-digits in the Rasmussen Reports generic congressional ballot. When given the choice, 47% of voters nationwide would vote for their district's Democratic candidate, while 34% would choose their Republican candidate.

Among voters who see economic issues as the most important in the upcoming election, 58% would vote Democratic while just 25% would vote Republican. A separate national survey found that the economy is a very important issue to 81% of voters.

THE PROJECTION FACTOR
In eight of the past 12 Presidential elections, TV networks proclaimed the winner as early as three hours before polls closed in Western states. Did these projections decrease voter turnout?

GWU professor Bill Adams' research says no.

Adams concludes that projections don't damage voter turnout and that the real issue is the less tangible one of equity and fairness. Indeed his focus groups in Los Angeles, Orange County, San Diego, Seattle and Portland, confirmed the hostility of Western voters toward early projections and their anger at feeling their votes are devalued by projections.

Read his Election Night News and Voter Turnout: Solving the Projection Puzzle for a detailed analysis.

HAPPY 100!
On August 27th, Lyndon Johnson would have celebrated his 100th birthday. In honor of this centennial milestone, LBJ National Historical Park and other LBJ-affiliated partners are hosting events to help people learn about our nation's 36th President. A highlight will be the opening of the President's office at the Texas White House on his birthday.

As part of the celebration, "Movies Under the Stars" are being shown at the LBJ Ranch this summer, carrying on a tradition enjoyed by the Johnson family, friends, and neighbors in the late 1960s.

AND HAPPY 75!
In 1933 Richard Hollingshead opened the first theater for the auto-bound movie patrons in Camden, N.J. People paid 25 cents per car as well as per person to see the British comedy, "Wives Beware," under the stars.

The drive-in concept didn't really get traction until the advent of in-car speakers in the early 1940s. By 1958, the number of drive-ins peaked at 4,063.

Today some 400 drive-ins remain in the U.S., a number that hasn't changed much in the past five years. Interestingly, drive-ins are suddenly becoming popular in China.

DOES PHILANTHROPY PAY?
Research from Columbia Business School's Social Enterprise Program finds that corporations are more inclined to underwrite Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives if they call positive attention to their products and help to boost sales and profits. However, the study also indicates that CSR initiatives can cost companies money if they're in industries such as computer chips, which don't advertise.

SAVE THE SHARKS
Guess the "Jaws" era is over. The House of Representatives has passed H.R. 5741, the Shark Conservation Act of 2008, requiring that sharks brought to shore as catch have fins naturally attached. It has gained the overwhelming support of conservationists, scientists and enforcement personnel.

Is it time for a movie remake?

CODE NAME QUIZ
The Secret Service uses code names for Presidents, First Ladies and other prominent persons and locations. Typically First Family members are given names all starting with the same letter. The Secret Service doesn’t choose these names, however. The White House Communications Agency (responsible for providing worldwide audiovisual, voice and data communications support for the President) actually does that. Match the following Presidents with their code names. Answers presented below. See you next month.

Answers: 1=b, 2=d, 3=e, 4=a, 5=c

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